Biden Is Now Leading Trump By 9 Points in Arizona

By Alicia Barrón

April 14, 2020

Arizona is considered a stronghold of the GOP, but that could change come November.

A new poll reveals candidate Joe Biden is leading over President Donald Trump 52 to 43 in Arizona.

Now let's take a look at Trump v Biden over time, Biden increased by three points and Trump saw no change since our March #AZPOP poll. What is also interesting is the incredibly small margin (3 points) between Trump's ceiling and floor of support. pic.twitter.com/BPLqyu3kTd
— Noble Predictive Insights (@NoblePredictive) April 14, 2020

OHPI’s Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) also shows 5 percent of Arizona voters remain undecided.

Biden was trailing behind Trump back in December, but went up six points in the polls during March. Now he’s up an additional three.

However, Biden’s lead in these polls may not be as solid as it first appears… There are signs that Trump’s base may be much more energized than the former vice president’s. pic.twitter.com/h0FLp7PwON
— Noble Predictive Insights (@NoblePredictive) April 14, 2020

“What is interesting is the incredibly small margin between Trump’s ceiling and floor of support against Biden,” Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights, said in a press release. “Trump’s biggest pain-point is in Maricopa County and will need to triage that if he hopes to carry Arizona’s eleven Electoral College votes come November.”

Further proof of Arizonans cooling on Trump are numbers showing more than half of Arizonans are not happy with him when it comes to jobs.

Trump Job Approval in AZ:
With @JoeBiden leading @realDonaldTrump in the most recent #AZPOP poll https://t.co/nVhV765ZJE, more than half of Arizonans disapprove of the job the president is doing. pic.twitter.com/jdY16kVOBe
— Noble Predictive Insights (@NoblePredictive) April 14, 2020

Nevertheless, seven in 10 Trump supporters in Arizona also said they were “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming election, while only 3 in 5 Biden supporters said the same.

Overall, Biden is leading with women, Latinos, people under and over 55, and Independent voters, where Trump leads with Republicans and rural voters.

However, Jacob Joss, data analyst at OHPI, said in the press release that campaigns may find it difficult to turn out voters in general in November if we’re still battling COVID-19 to this degree.

“While the president faces a significant deficit in these unprecedented times, he is by no means out of this race.”