Trump Is Now Losing Arizona To Biden By 7 Points

Joe Biden and Donald Trump

By Jessica Swarner

May 19, 2020

Trump’s support in Arizona has remained at the same level for the past three months while McSally falls further behind Kelly.

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in Arizona for the third month in a row. 

The OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) poll found that half of Arizona likely voters said they support Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 43% supported Trump.

Trump’s polling remained the same as in March and April, despite his recent visit to the state. The president had gone to a Phoenix Honeywell facility earlier this month to thank the company for stepping up to produce masks during the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump has received backlash in recent months for not helping governors and other officials obtain the protective medical gear and other supplies they requested to manage the outbreak, as well as for not being better prepared for a national disaster that so far has left more than 91,500 Americans dead.

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“President Trump is going to have to do a lot more than parachute into Arizona to boost his sagging numbers,” Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research, said in a press release. “With six months to go until Election Day, Trump is going to have to invest heavily in Arizona to pull out a victory in The Grand Canyon State.”

Biden’s support in Arizona fluctuated from 49% in OHPI’s March poll to 52% in April. The last time OHPI conducted a poll in which Trump led Biden in the state was in December 2019, when the president was up 46-44. 

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Trump does continue to lead in at least one demographic: non college-educated white voters, in which he is ahead of Biden by six points. Although, when it comes to white voters with a college degree, Biden leads by 11 points.

And when it comes to all voters, 51% have a favorable view of Biden while 44% said the same for Trump. Conversely, 53% of voters indicated unfavorable views of the president while 45% said so of Biden.

OHPI pointed out that voters who have an unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden, which in this case was about 6%, will be key to deciding the winner. Of those voters, 63% said they would vote for Biden while only 6% said they would vote for Trump, and 31% were unsure or didn’t want to answer.

OHPI officials said the polling of 600 likely general election voters took place May 9-11. The margin of error was plus or minus 4%.

Additionally, updated numbers from OHPI also shows Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leading Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 13 points, up from seven points in March and nine points in April.

Specifically in Maricopa County, the state’s largest and most populous county, Kelly has an even higher lead of 54%-36%.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told The Arizona Republic. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

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  • Jessica Swarner

    Jessica Swarner is the community editor for The Copper Courier. She is an ASU alumna and previously worked at KTAR News 92.3 FM in Phoenix.



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