Graphic Biden vs Trump Biden's lead over Trump suggests that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the November presidential election.
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New Florida poll shows 46% of registered voters would vote for likely presidential candidate Joe Biden, with 40% voting for Donald Trump.

Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden holds a 6-point lead over President Donald Trump in Florida, the nation’s largest swing state with 29 electoral votes, according to a new poll from the University of North Florida (UNF). 

The poll, which was released early Monday morning, shows Biden has the backing of 46% of the registered voters in the Sunshine State, with Trump trailing behind the former Democratic vice president with 40% of the support.

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Biden drew even more support in Jacksonville, where he bested Trump, who owns properties in the state and declared residency status in Florida in 2019, by a solid 8 points. This is significant when taking into account that Republican-leaning Duvall, a county that encompasses the state’s capital, has dominated in every presidential election since 1980.

Michael Binder, the director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said that although Biden’s lead should be taken with some caution, it suggests that “something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election.”

The UNF poll surveyed 3,244 registered voters in Florida via email from March 31 to April 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.

National Support Grows for Biden

Further appearing to boost Biden’s chances against the Republican incumbent, a recent Monmouth University Poll shows him with a 3 point nationwide lead among registered voters over Trump, who comes in second with 45% of the support (Biden’s 3-point lead is within the poll’s sampling error).

At the same time, Trump has close to a 2 to 1 margin over the likely Democratic presidential candidate in the 2,500 red counties that the president won against Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. But the news gets better for Biden. In the approximately 300 swing counties where the margins in the 2016 presidential election were 10 points or less, he bested Trump by a solid 50% to 41%.

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Drawing support from younger voters, Biden leads 56% to 34% among those 35 and under.  He also has a 4 point advantage among voters 55 and older, while Trump shows a 53 to 40 lead among voters 35 to 54  years old. 

As it is to be expected, the partisan divide prevails as Democrats back Biden 89% to 6% and Republicans support the president 90% to 7%. On the other hand, Independents are almost even, with 45% declaring themselves for Trump and 44% for Biden. However, it is the Electoral College who will have the last word in the 2020 presidential election. Still, that may not necessarily be bad news for Biden.  

“As we learned in 2016, the outcome will be determined by the Electoral College rather than the national popular vote,” Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said in a statement. But, he added, so far “the poll results suggest Biden may actually be starting out with an advantage in crucial swing areas of the country.”