New data released last month challenges longstanding misconceptions about Arizona’s Latino electorate and stands as a warning to Democrats who take their vote for granted.
For grassroots organizations, this isn’t new information — for years, groups that work with the Latino community have said that they are not a monolithic group of voters. Latino voters have a wide range of political views, experiences, priorities, and do not vote based on any single, unifying issue — they care about the issues that affect their families, their community, and their country.
In Arizona, there are 1.3 million eligible voters who are Latino, which has doubled since 2000 – making up 25% of the state’s electorate.
Latino voters plan to turnout
Data for Social Good, in partnership with Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) conducted a survey in April and May 2024 of over 1,000 Arizona Latinos, online and over the phone. The groups believe it is one of the largest surveys of Latino voters ever conducted in Arizona and can provide invaluable insights into building political power within the Latino community.
“Our work does not stop on election day, beyond 2024 we plan to use this data to continue building political power for Latinos in Arizona and across the country,” said Alejandra Gomez, executive director of LUCHA. “This data gives us a roadmap to strengthen our advocacy and to hold elected officials accountable and to push for policies that will make a difference in the lives of working families.”
The survey found that:
- The majority of Latino voters feel the Republican Party does not care about the issues they face
- Over 90% of Latino voters in Arizona are planning to vote in the 2024 election—and 77% are absolutely certain they will— signaling a powerful turnout in a battleground state
- Nearly 80% of Latino voters believe that voting is the most effective way to create meaningful change, underscoring their transformative civic power
- The majority of Latino voters, nearly 40%, describe their political views as moderate, with 36% describing themselves as liberal and about 25% conservative.
One of the most important trends in the data that needs to be recognized is the growing number of Latinos who identify as neither Democrat nor Republican, which made up nearly 30% of the respondents. Democrats were still the preferred party by those surveyed, with more than double the share of Republicans.
“They aren’t being swayed by empty rhetoric, they’re making informed decisions based on their values and the issues that matter most to them,” Gomez said.
Too often, only Latinos who are highly engaged and vote in every single election, local and national, are the only ones who are targeted, leaving newly eligible voters off the table, Gomez said. For the people that have no party preference, they are not only never hearing things that matter to them — they are also not being contacted by candidates.
A red mirage
The data also disproves that Latinos are drifting towards the Republican Party—but doesn’t mean they are running to the Democratic Party either, Gomez said.
Instead, she believes Arizona Latinos are more committed to the values often pushed forward by Democrats than the Party itself. But it will take a concerted effort by Democrats to convince Latinos that their party represents the issues that matter to them instead of simply showing up with cultural symbols, telling them to vote, and expecting the ballot to be cast in their favor.
“We’re not just observing the political process from the sidelines, we’re ready to make our voices heard,” said Gomez. “My message to political campaigns is that this boom and bust apparatus of coming in a few months before the election, throwing in a bunch of commercials just does not work, the pandering does not work for Latino communities, specifically here in Arizona.”
Latinos are a diverse community, with differing national origins, class identities, gender identities, sexual orientations, and geographic locations, Data for Social Good President Lisa García Bedolla told The Copper Courier, and all of these factors matter in understanding the Latino electorate.
While there does tend to be similarities in opinions among Latinos, she added, it’s not for biological or cultural reasons, —but for the shared set of lived experiences that lead the community to see politics in a particular way.
García Bedolla gave the example of immigration: the idea that this is the number one issue for the majority of Latino voters needs to be abandoned—although a politician’s stance on immigration can frame how they feel about the Latino community, not just immigration itself.
While Latino voters tend to be framed only as immigrants or Spanish speakers — in reality, the data shows that over a third have been in the United States for four generations or more.
How immigration plays a role
In Harris’ last campaign visit to Arizona ahead of election day, the Mexican-American band Los Tigres Del Norte performed and urged voters to get out and vote for Harris – showing the campaign’s final push to appeal to Latino voters.
The band performed songs such as “La Puerta Negra,” one of their most popular hits, and “De Paisano a Paisano,” which describes the struggles of the Latino working class and crossing the border in search of a better life.
Liz Garza’s mother, a Glendale resident who attended the rally, immigrated from Jalisco, Mexico, said she feels a kinship with Harris because they are both daughters of immigrants. Knowing that has helped Garza relate more closely with her, and thinks that Harris’ background helps her draw a connection to the Latino community.
Garza canvasses for the Harris-Walz campaign in the west Valley. She said doesn’t see as much loud, public support for Harris among her community in day-to-day life, but when she is talking with people at their doorstep, people share their support for Harris openly.
Latinos who support Harris aren’t as loud about their vote as the Trump voters are, Garza said. But even with her efforts as a volunteer, she doesn’t think outreach is consistent nor substantive enough to make a real impact, leaving voters feeling like neither party cares about them.
Trusting those that stick around
The Latino community places more trust in organizations like LUCHA, rather than the Democratic Party, Gomez said. Year-round, their organizers connect with the communities they serve and listen to what is important to them — not just showing up around the election to get them to turn out to vote.
“We’re actually trying to change the material conditions that are challenging our communities within their neighborhoods, to be able to show and prove to communities that they actually have the power to be engaged, to make the change,” Gomez said.
Because they have taken the time to develop that trust, LUCHA’s word carries weight when they tell people they believe the person who is going to deliver meaningful change on the kitchen table issues that Latinos care about is Kamala Harris, not Trump.
“Trump has shown us that he’s a racist bigot, that he hates the working class, that he only cares about his own agenda,” said Gomez. “Now we see him getting desperate, and we see him starting to berate our communities, but what he didn’t count on is that our communities stand together.”
LUCHA canvassers have knocked on over 600,000 doors ahead of election day. And while they’re out, they collect information to guide what future outreach will look like.
The data is being used and will continue to be used to inform the messaging, outreach, and engagement efforts that LUCHA conducts year-round to ensure that they are resonating with the Latino community and addressing the real concerns they have.
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