OPINION: Groundbreaking Cluster Data Proves Latino Voters are Not Buying What Trump is Selling — Latinos are Poised to Shape the Future of Arizona.

As we inch closer to the 2024 elections, a persistent and flawed narrative is emerging: the idea that Latino voters are fleeing en masse to the Republican Party. National media seems to be setting up Latinos as the scapegoat for a potential Trump victory in 2024.

This assumption, largely driven by superficial analysis, cherry-picked anecdotes, and junk polls fail to capture the complex reality of Latino voters’ political participation. 

However, groundbreaking new data from Latinos Rising: Redefining Power, Inside Arizona’s Most Comprehensive Voter Study In Decades—one of the largest and most comprehensive studies ever conducted on Arizona’s Latino electorate—proves that this narrative is not only misleading but dangerously simplistic.

This revolutionary study provides a never-before-seen level of insight into the diverse and nuanced political landscape within the Latino community in the battleground state of Arizona. Using cutting-edge cluster analysis, the AZ Latino Values Briefing offers a fresh, detailed look at the wide range of political identities among Latino voters. Far from being a monolithic group, Arizona’s Latinos are a dynamic and multi-faceted electorate whose priorities vary by generation, economic background, and personal experiences.

Let me be clear: Latinos are not fleeing to the Republican Party in droves. In fact, the data paints quite the opposite picture.

What Latinos Expect 

The cluster data shows that Latinos are demanding real solutions on issues like healthcare, housing, and economic security. Democrats need to prioritize these concerns and engage with Latino voters in a meaningful, sustained way—not just when it’s time to turn out the vote. Bottom line if you parachute into our communities months before a major election and hope Latinos vote for you, you will surely be disappointed.

But there is hope. Latino voters in Arizona are not lost to Republicans. Far from it. But they are looking for leaders who will take their concerns seriously. If Democrats hope to maintain their support, they must embrace the findings of this groundbreaking data and engage Latino voters with respect, authenticity, and a focus on the issues that matter most. 

A Call to Action for Democrats

The data from this study should serve as a wake-up call for Democrats. Latinos are not fleeing to Republicans, but many are growing tired of being treated as an afterthought This transactional approach to organizing by the major parties doesn’t work. And for too long, campaigns have reached out to Latinos with a narrow focus on immigration and symbolic gestures. Like using Latino celebrities to spew campaign talking points to earn our community’s votes. 

Demographics are not destiny, Democrats winning over a substantial amount of Latino voters is not a given. Organizations like LUCHA and others have done their job to activate and mobilize our Latino communities. Registering hundreds of thousands of voters, providing political education through hundreds of town hall and listening session events, and building deep relationships with our community. This has led to a surge in the base expanding, and participation in the political process. 

Our communities want more than mariachis and free tacos every four years, they see past that and are focused on what you will do for our communities. They want solutions, a hand up, they care about everyday issues that impact their families and communities, not window dressing. 

Latinos Care About Policy, Not Performative Politics

The Arizona Latinos Rising data shows what many of us in the community have already known for a long time: Latinos are not single-issue voters, and they are tired of being treated like a demographic checkbox or a symbolic band of mariachis at campaign rallies. Latinos in Arizona are concerned about real, kitchen table issues. They want their vote to mean something, for it to translate into tangible change in their daily lives.

When asked about their top priorities, healthcare access, affordable housing, and the economy dominated the list. In fact, nearly 60% of Latino voters said that the rising cost of living makes it difficult to afford basic necessities. It’s these issues—affordable healthcare, stable housing, and economic relief—that drive Latino engagement, not the superficial outreach we so often see during election cycles.

Furthermore, the data shows that 80% of Latino voters believe voting is the most effective way to create change. This is a community deeply invested in democracy and freedom. Not disillusioned by it. Latino voters trust the legitimacy of elections and understand their political; power, and they intend to use it in the 2024 election.

The Truth Behind the Numbers

According to the AZ Latino Values Briefing, 46.4% of Latino respondents identify as Democrats, while only 19.2% align with the Republican Party. Even more striking, 59.5% of Latino voters believe that the Republican Party does not care about issues facing their community. So where does this misleading narrative come from?

It’s a narrative built on sensationalism rather than substance. The idea that Latinos are turning red is based on narrow slices of data and ignores the rich complexity within Latino political behavior. The Latinos Rising data cluster analysis, which categorizes Latino voters into segments such as American Dreamers, Reluctantly Committed, and Alienated Centrists, Detached Undecideds, and Engaged Enigmas underscores how varied and nuanced Latino political participation truly is. These clusters show that while Latino voters care deeply about issues like immigration, they are also profoundly invested in issues that impact their daily lives: healthcare, affordable housing, and economic security—issues where Democrats are generally seen as more responsive and have engrained into their platform. 

The Myth of the Latino Shift to Republicans

So why does the myth of Latinos shifting to the Republican Party persist? Part of the answer lies in how political analysts and pundits often conflate specific moments—like a slight uptick in Latino Republican voters in Florida or Texas—with a broader national trend. But Arizona is not Texas or Florida, and Latino voters in Arizona lean progressive on issues like reproductive rights, racial profiling, and healthcare.

The Latinos Rising data also shows that the majority of unaffiliated voters—who might be mistakenly lumped into the “Latinos turning Republican” narrative—are unaffiliated not because they’re moving rightward, but because they feel disconnected from both major parties. They believe that political parties only reach out to them when they need their vote and are otherwise out of touch with the everyday challenges Latinos face. 

As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 election, Arizona’s Latino electorate is ready to shape the future in this election and beyond. The question isn’t whether Latinos will shape the 2024 election (they will)—it’s whether candidates are prepared to listen, engage, and deliver positive change.  They risk not just a lost election but the disillusionment of a community that knows its worth and demands to be heard. The stakes have never been higher—and in 2024 this is a moment no one can afford to miss.